Charles Turnitsa, PhD, is the head of the Computer Engineering program for Regent University. He has been a wargamer for over 40 years, and continues to do professional research in areas such as wargaming, data interoperability, and modeling and simulation.

Curtis Blais, PhD, is a member of the research faculty in the Naval Postgraduate School’s Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute. He has over 47 years of experience in modeling and simulation development, application, and education, and actively contributes to development of international standards in modeling and simulation.

Andreas Tolk, PhD, is Chief Scientist for Complex Systems Modeling at the MITRE Corporation, His contributions have been recognized by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) as well as the Society for Modeling and Simulation (SCS) with distinguished contribution awards. He is a senior member of IEEE and ACM and a Fellow of SCS.

Foreword xv

Preface xxiii

List of Contributors xxv

Author Biography xxix

Prologue xli

Part I Introduction 1

1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation 3
Jeffrey Appleget

Introduction 3

Terminology 3

An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations 5

Wargames and Computer-Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today 6

Wargames Today 10

Simulations Today 13

Introduction 13

Simulation Types 13

Aggregate Simulations 13

Entity Simulations 14

Simulations and Prediction 14

Standard Assumptions 14

Data 15

Simulating the Reality of Combat 16

The Capability and Capacity of Modern Computing to Represent Combat 16

Finite Size 17

Number of Pieces/Entities 17

Terrain 18

Rules 18

Movement 18

Attack 19

Adjudication 19

Victory Conditions 19

Summary 20

Campaign

Analysis 20

Conclusion 21

Part II Historical Context 23

2 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel 25
Jorit Wintjes

Introduction 25

Kriegsspiel Prehistory 29

A School for War – the Prussian Kriegsspiel 36

The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 – 1862 42

The Golden Age – 1862 to c. 1875 46

The Changing Kriegsspiel – c. 1875 to 1914 50

Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders – 1871 to 1914 54

Conclusion 59

3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming 65
Joseph M. Saur

The Nature of Combat Models 67

Europe’s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet 77

China Exclusive: China’s “Magic Cube” Computer Unlocks the Future 77

A Model to Predict War 78

Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics – Security 79

The Nature of Wargames 81

The Players – Who Might Be Involved? 85

The CRT – How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non-Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)? 86

Organizational Behaviors 88

Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models) 89

Yyyyn 90

Part III Wargaming and Operations Research 91

4 An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis 93
Paul K. Davis

Background and Structure 93

Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions 94

Different Purposes for Wargaming 94

Backdrop 94

A Common Critique of M&S 94

Humans and M&S 98

Distinctions 98

A Model-Game-Model Paradigm 100

The Core Idea 100

Can Human Gaming Truly Serve as “Testing”? 101

Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula 103

Background 103

Model Building 104

Ideal Methods and Practical Expedients 104

Modernizing the Escalation Ladder 106

Cognitive Decision Models 108

Top-Level Structure 109

Lower Level Structure 109

Designing and Executing a Human Game 111

Reflections and Conclusions 114

Implications for Simulation 117

5 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision-Making 123
Jan Hodicky and Alejandro Hernandez

Introduction 123

Military Methods to Knowledge Discovery 124

Technology: Knowledge Enablers 126

Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective 128

Wargaming Relation to M&S 128

Wargaming Elements 129

Constructive Simulation Building Blocks 131

Wargaming Elements Not Supported by Constructive Simulation 131

Challenges to Combined Methodologies for Knowledge Discovery 132

Constructive Simulation Constrains in the Context of Automation and Wargaming 133

Stage- Wise Experimentation in CAW 139

A Progression of Mixed Methods to Grand Innovation 139

A Complete Application of ACAW and SWE for Future Capability Insights 144

Computer- Assisted Wargaming Classification 148

Conclusion 151

6 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames: Case Study – “European Thread” 157
Andrzej Najgebauer, Sławomir Wojciechowski, Ryszard Antkiewicz, and Dariusz Pierzchała

Introduction 157

Assumptions and Research Tools 159

Modeling of Complex Activities 161

Network Model of Complex Activities 161

The MCA Software Package for Wargaming 166

Wargame – Course of Action Evaluation 169

Assumptions 169

Situation 170

Model of Operation 173

A Collection of Values of the Function h(g) 173

Deterrence Phase 175

Parameters Value – Deterrence Phase 175

COA Evaluation 179

Summary 180

7 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis 183
Mark Sisson

Introduction 183

Current Efforts Underway 184

Methodology 185

Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios 186

Comparability 188

Emergence 190

Triangulation 190

Exercises 191

Artificial Intelligence 192

Wargames 193

Computer Simulation Models 194

Mathematical Models 195

Experimentation 196

Building Portfolios 196

Conclusion 199

8 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems 203
Phillip Pournelle

Why Are We Doing This? 205

Framing the Problem 207

M&S Support to Wargames 212

Pathologies and How to Avoid Them 213

Combining Wargaming and M&S 219

Part IV Wargaming and Concept Developing and Testing 223

9 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning 225
Karsten Brathen, Rikke Amilde Seehuus, and Ole Martin Mevassvik

Introduction 225

Operational Planning and Wargaming 226

What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming? 231

Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning 232

Enabling Technologies 234

Models 235

System Implementation 237

SWAP 238

SWAP Experiment 241

Conclusion and Way Forward 243

10 Simulation-Based Cyber Wargaming 249
Ambrose Kam

Motivation and Overview 249

Introduction 250

Cyber Simulation 253

Mission Analysis Tool 258

Wargames 261

Commercial Wargames 265

Future Work 267

Summary 269

11 Using Computer-Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations 273
Armin Fügenschuh, Sönke Marahrens, Leonie Marguerite Johannsmann, Sandra Matuszewski, Daniel Müllenstedt, and Johannes Schmidt

Introduction 273

Public Software (C:MA/NO) 275

User- Tailored Software (VBS3) 277

Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems 278

Wargaming Support 282

Conclusion 285

Part V Emerging Technologies 289

12 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research: Enhancing Information Flow Between Simulationists and Wargamers 291
Paul Vebber and Steven Aguiar

The Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework 293

Bridging the Wargaming – Simulation Gap 297

Virtual World Beginnings 299

Elgin Marbles – An Analytic Game 301

Analytical vs. Narrative Games 303

Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality 307

Operational Wargames 308

Distributed LVC Wargames 312

The Future 315

13 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision-Making 317
Richard J. Haberlin and Ernest H. Page

Introduction 317

Impact/Capabilities 318

Strategic Planning 318

Acquisitions 318

Spectrum of Visualizations 319

Interactive Visualizations 320

Commercial Interactive Data Visualization 320

Custom Data and Analytics Visualization 320

Methodology 322

Model Elicitation 322

Framework 323

Considerations 323

Data 324

Analytic Tools 324

Colors of Money 324

Courses of Action 325

Model Construction 325

Strategic 326

Budget 327

Risk Identification and Mitigation 328

Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL) 329

Audio Visual Support 329

Multi-Level Security 331

Enterprise Integration 331

Community of Practice 332

Summary 333

14 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System 335
Dean S. Hartley, III

Motivation and Overview 335

Introduction 336

A Modern Conflict Ontology 337

An Introduction to the MCO 337

Actors 338

Objects 339

Actions 340

Metrics or State Variables 342

MCO Examples 343

Provenance of the MCO 346

Knowledge of Warfare 346

Knowledge of OOTWs 346

Modeling Issues 347

Precursor Ontologies 348

Early Versions of the MCO 349

Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology 349

Model Building Steps 350

Moving from the Ontology to the Conceptual Model 352

Building Block Concept 354

Agendas and Implicit Metric Models 356

Theoretical Metric Models 357

VV&A 358

Constructing the Scenario 361

Model Infrastructure 361

Conclusion 362

15 Agent-Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense 367
M. Fatih Hocaogl̆ u

Motivation and Overview 367

Introduction 367

Related Studies 369

Agent- Directed Simulation and AdSiF 371

AdSiF: Agent Driven Simulation Framework 373

End Game Agent 374

Command and Control Agent 374

C2 Architecture and Information Sharing 379

Target Evaluation 379

Fire Decision 380

Fire Doctrine 381

Decision-Level Data Fusion 382

Aims and Performance Measurement 384

Types of End Game Analysis 388

Footprint Analysis 390

Operating Area 394

Defended Area Analysis 395

Scenario View 397

Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design 397

An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View 398

Discussions 402

Epilogue 407

Index 411

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