Trend Following (Updated Edition): Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets
ISBN: 9780137020188 | 013702018X
Edition: 1stFormat: Paperback
Publisher: FT Press
Pub. Date: 1/1/2009
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Today, you need trend following more than ever. Read this bestselling book, and put it to work for you! Real proof, real data, real results Includes over a decade of detailed performance charts, updated to include the Fall 2008 market crash All the Information You Need...in One Number Why the market price still tells you all you need to know to trade--and always will--in both bull and bear markets Pinpointing Targets of Opportunity What to trade, when to trade, and how much to trade Meet Today's Leading Trend Followers Extraordinary trader prof... MORE
| Foreword | p. xiii |
| Preface | p. xvii |
| Acknowledgments | p. xxi |
| p. 1 | |
| Trend Following | p. 3 |
| The Market | p. 3 |
| Winning Versus Losing | p. 4 |
| Investor Versus Trader | p. 6 |
| Fundamental Versus Technical | p. 7 |
| Discretionary Versus Mechanical | p. 11 |
| In Plain Sight | p. 12 |
| Change | ... MORE |
| Modus Operandi: Price | p. 17 |
| Follow the Trend | p. 18 |
| Loss | p. 22 |
| Conclusion | p. 23 |
| Great Trend Followers | p. 27 |
| David Harding | p. 29 |
| Bill Dunn | p. 32 |
| John W. Henry | p. 45 |
| Ed Seykota | p. 58 |
| Keith Campbell | p. 67 |
| Jerry Parker | p. 71 |
| Salem Abraham | p. 74 |
| Richard Dennis | p. 78 |
| Richard Donchian | p. 85 |
| Jesse Livermore and Dickson Watts | p. 90 |
| p. 95 | |
| Performance Data | p. 97 |
| Absolute Returns | p. 98 |
| Fear of Volatility and Confusion with Risk | p. 99 |
| Drawdowns | p. 106 |
| Correlation | p. 111 |
| Zero Sum Nature of the Markets | p. 114 |
| George Soros and Zero Sum | p. 116 |
| Big Events, Crashes, and Panics | p. 123 |
| 2008 Stock Market Bubble and Crash | p. 126 |
| Day-by-Day Analysis | p. 136 |
| 2000-2002 Stock Market Bubble | p. 138 |
| Long-Term Capital Management Collapse | p. 151 |
| Asian Contagion | p. 164 |
| Barings Bank | p. 168 |
| Metallgesellschaft | p. 172 |
| Final Thoughts | p. 175 |
| The Always "New" Coming Storm | p. 178 |
| Baseball: Thinking Outside the Batter's Box | p. 181 |
| The Home Run | p. 182 |
| Moneyball and Billy Beane | p. 185 |
| John W. Henry Enters the Game | p. 186 |
| Red Sox 2003-2007 | p. 188 |
| p. 191 | |
| Human Behavior | p. 193 |
| Prospect Theory | p. 194 |
| Emotional Intelligence: Daniel Goleman | p. 200 |
| Charles Faulkner | p. 201 |
| Ed Seykota's Trading Tribe | p. 202 |
| Curiosity Is the Answer, Not Degrees | p. 204 |
| Commitment to Habitual Success | p. 206 |
| Decision Making | p. 211 |
| Occam's Razor | p. 212 |
| Fast and Frugal Decision Making | p. 213 |
| The Innovator's Dilemma | p. 216 |
| Process Versus Outcome | p. 218 |
| Science of Trading | p. 221 |
| Critical Thinking | p. 222 |
| Chaos Theory: Linear Versus Nonlinear | p. 224 |
| Compounding | p. 229 |
| Holy Grails | p. 231 |
| Buy and Hold | p. 232 |
| Warren Buffett | p. 234 |
| Losers Average Losers | p. 235 |
| Crash and Panic | p. 238 |
| Analysis Paralysis | p. 241 |
| Final Thoughts | p. 243 |
| p. 245 | |
| Trading Systems | p. 247 |
| Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty | p. 248 |
| Five Questions for a Trading System | p. 253 |
| Your Trading System | p. 265 |
| Frequently Asked Questions | p. 266 |
| The Game | p. 277 |
| Slow Acceptance | p. 278 |
| Blame Game | p. 279 |
| Understand the Game | p. 280 |
| Decrease Leverage; Decrease Return | p. 281 |
| Fortune Favors the Bold | p. 282 |
| Afterword | p. 285 |
| Acceptance | p. 285 |
| Inefficient Markets | p. 288 |
| Trend Following Critics | p. 290 |
| Critic Geetesh Bhardwaj | p. 294 |
| Final Thoughts | p. 296 |
| Foreword to the First Edition by Charles Faulkner | p. 299 |
| Appendices | p. 303 |
| Introduction to Appendices | p. 305 |
| Trend Following for Stocks | p. 307 |
| Does Trend Following Work on Stocks? | p. 307 |
| Short Selling | p. 318 |
| Tax Efficiency | p. 318 |
| The Capitalism Distribution: Observations of Individual Common Stock Returns, 1983-2006 | p. 331 |
| Charts | p. 338 |
| Performance Guide | p. 347 |
| Trend Following Historical Performance Data | p. 347 |
| Abraham Trading Company | p. 347 |
| Campbell & Company, Inc.-Financial Metals & Energy- Large Program | p. 349 |
| Chesapeake Capital Corporation-Diversified Program | p. 352 |
| Clarke Capital Management, Inc.-Millennium Program | p. 354 |
| Drury Capital, Inc.-Diversified Trend Following Program | p. 355 |
| DUNN Capital Management, Inc.-World Monetary Assets | p. 356 |
| Eckhardt Trading Company-Standard Program | p. 359 |
| John W. Henry & Company, Inc.-Financials and Metals Program | p. 361 |
| Millburn Ridgefield Corporation-Diversified Program | p. 363 |
| Rabar Market Research, Inc.-Diversified | p. 366 |
| Sunrise Capital Partners LLC-Expanded Diversified | p. 368 |
| Superfund | p. 370 |
| Transtrend B.V.-Diversified Trend Program-Enhanced Risk (USD) | p. 371 |
| Winton Capital Management Ltd-Diversified Winton Futures Fund | p. 372 |
| Risk Disclaimer | p. 374 |
| Short-Term Trading | p. 375 |
| Personality Traits of Successful Traders | p. 377 |
| Trend Following Models | p. 381 |
| Trading System Example from Mechanica | p. 385 |
| System Background Information | p. 385 |
| System Details | p. 386 |
| A Canadian Dollar Trade | p. 388 |
| System Performance | p. 389 |
| Summary | p. 392 |
| Critical Questions for Trading Systems | p. 395 |
| Resources | p. 397 |
| Endnotes | p. 399 |
| Bibliography | p. 423 |
| Index | p. 431 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
Michael Covel is a highly respected author, director, and entrepreneur who founded the internationally known website TurtleTrader.com in 1996. Covel’s first book was Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets (FT Press). The book profiles great trend following traders who have won billions in the market and has been translated into 10 languages so far.
Covel’s second book The Complete TurtleTrader: The Legend, the Lessons, the Results is the definitive inside look at the legendary trader Richard Dennis and his student traders, ‘The Turtles.’ The book has received wide acclaim from the Turtles themselves. Translated into 6 languages so far.
Covel also wrote, directed, and produced a theatrical release documentary titled Broke: The New American Dream, built around the subject of behavioral finance, specifically investigating the 2007—2009 market crisis and crash.
Michael Covel can be reached directly at www.michaelcovel.com
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