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Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs

by: Lucy; William

Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs

by: Lucy; William

ISBN 13:
9781932364149
ISBN 10:
1932364145
Format: Paperback
Copyright: 02/01/2006
Publisher: Routledge

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Summary

Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs predicts a surprising outcome in the decades-long tug-of-war between urban hubs and suburban outposts. Planning scholars William H. Lucy and David L. Phillips document signs of resurgence in cities and interpret omens of decline in many suburbs. They offer an extensive analysis of the 2000 census, with insights into the influence of income disparities, housing age and size, racial segregation, immigration, and poverty. They also examine popular perceptions-and misperceptions-about safety and danger in cities, suburbs, and exurbs that affect settlement patterns.

Preface

viii

Acknowledgements

List of Figures

xiii

List of Tables

xiv

List of Maps

xix

List of Acronyms

xxi

PART I. THEMES AND POLICY APPROACHES

(42)

Is the Past Prologue for Change?

(16)

Disparities in Relative Income

(2)

Growth, Sprawl, and Disparities

(2)

Housing Markets, Mobility, and Federal Policies

(1)

Consumerism and Careerism

(1)

Local Government Development Decisions

(1)

Tyranny of Easy Development Decisions

(1)

Beliefs and Public Policies

(1)

Order of Chapters

(2)

Beliefs and Places

(4)

Too Little Housing in Policy Critiques

(24)

Land Consumption

(1)

Poverty Concentrations

(1)

Taxable Resource Inequalities

(1)

Racial Segregation in Suburbs

(1)

Market Tests and Spatial Inequalities

(1)

Proposed Remedies

(12)

Mega-Decisions and Daily Life

(1)

Decisions and Small-Scale Policies

(7)

PART II. CITIES AND SUBURBS: TRENDS AND INTERPRETATIONS

(186)

Exaggerating City Population Decline

(18)

Twentieth-Century Trends

(2)

Population and Occupied Housing Changes

(1)

Cities' Evolution from 1950 to 1970

(1)

Downtown Population Changes

(1)

Racial Change

(1)

Population and Housing in 50 States

(2)

Variation by Size and Region

(1)

Immigration

(1)

Beliefs and Preferences

(3)

Demand Increased

(4)

Housing and Cities' Prospects

(29)

Summary of Findings

(1)

The Relative Income Measure

(2)

Disparities between Cities and Suburbs

(1)

542 Cities

(2)

Region and Population

(2)

Nonstable Cities

(1)

White Flight?

(2)

Home Ownership

(2)

Relative Income in Six Central Cities

(1)

Poverty in Cities

(1)

Concentrated Neighborhood Poverty

(2)

Single-Unit Structures and Home Ownership

(1)

Single-Unit Structures and Relative Income

(1)

Small Houses, Ownership, and Relative Income

(3)

Condominiums

(2)

Housing Past and Future

(1)

Post-2000 Trends in Cities

(7)

Scoping Suburban Decline

(30)

Summary of Results

(1)

Suburban Dominance

(2)

City Decline and Metropolitan Growth

(6)

Ring, Sector, and Scattered Population Decline

101

(6)

Population Size in Suburbs

107

(1)

Severe Suburban Population Loss

108

(1)

Prospects for Increasing Density

108

(4)

Suburban Diversity

112

(1)

Immigrants

113

(1)

Suburban Decline in the 1960s and 1970s

114

(1)

Average Household Size, Families with Children, and the Elderly

114

(2)

High Elderly Populations

116

(1)

Average Household Size and Occupied Housing Units

117

(1)

Suburban Trends

117

(1)

Methods

118

(4)

Discovering Poor Suburbs

122

(47)

Summary of Findings

123

(1)

Methodology

123

(1)

Relative Income Conditions and Trends

124

(3)

Regions and Growth Matter Little

127

(1)

Spatial Patterns

128

(1)

Growing Suburbs and Metropolitan Areas

128

(1)

Population Size and Income Changes

129

(1)

City and Suburb Incomes

130

(1)

The Lowest Relative Income Suburbs

131

(5)

Poverty in Suburbs

136

(2)

Poverty in Suburban Neighborhoods

138

(4)

Income Changes in the 1980s and 1990s

142

(1)

Decline in Old and Middle-Aged Suburbs

142

(1)

Volatility in Suburbs

143

(1)

Suburban Income Change Variations

144

(3)

Metropolitan Profiles of Income Changes

147

(12)

Summary and Interpretation

159

(10)

Do Middle-Aged Suburbs Need to Reinvent Themselves?

169

(20)

Summary of Findings

169

(1)

Three Theories: Population, Contagion, and Age of Housing

170

(1)

Methodology

171

(1)

Describing and Explaining Income Transitions

171

(2)

Scale and Time

173

(1)

Decade of Housing Construction and Relative Income Changes

174

(4)

Factors in Differentiating Neighborhoods

178

(9)

Interpretation

187

(2)

Discovering Virtues of Old Neighborhoods

189

(40)

Units of Analysis

190

(1)

Relative Income and Decade of Construction

190

(1)

Neighborhood Life Cycles

191

(2)

Income Increases in Neighborhoods in the 1980s and 1990s

193

(1)

Evidence for Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change

193

(5)

Counting Census Tracts

198

(3)

Comparing the 1990s and 1980s

201

(4)

Which Old Neighborhoods Increased in Relative Income?

205

(5)

Differences among Metropolitan Areas

210

(11)

Summary of Trends

221

(1)

Impending Suburban Triumph from a 1950 Perspective

221

(8)

PART III. BELIEFS AND PLACES

229

(110)

Linking Patterns, Beliefs, and Policies

231

(17)

A Policy Debate about Trickle-Down Neighborhood Change

232

(1)

Influences on Preferences

233

(3)

Conditions and Ideas Influence Beliefs and Actions

236

(1)

Consumer Preferences for Neighborhood Settings

237

(1)

Crime Rates Fell in the 1990s

238

(2)

Beliefs about Health and Motor Vehicle Safety

240

(1)

Demography Alters the Distribution of Location Preferences

241

(1)

Results Matter

242

(1)

Myths and Mega-Decisions

243

(5)

The Cul-de-Sac Safety Myth: Housing Markets and Settlement Patterns

248

(18)

The Issue

248

(3)

History

251

(5)

Effects of Street Networks on Safety

256

(10)

The Myth of Exurban Safety and Rational Location Decisions

266

(30)

Comparative Danger

267

(1)

Homicides, Violent Crime, and Traffic Fatalities

268

(2)

Low Density, Speed, and Traffic Deaths

270

(1)

Homicides by Family Members, Acquaintances, and Strangers

271

(1)

Traffic Fatality Rates in Cities, Suburbs, and Exurbs

272

(11)

Narrow Roads and Aggressive Driving

283

(1)

Awareness of Dangers

284

(2)

Misinformation, Miscalculations, and Misdirected Emotions

286

(1)

Danger of Leaving Home

287

(2)

Fear of Crime

289

(1)

Sex, Insurance, and Traffic Information

290

(6)

The Past and Future of Small House Neighborhoods

296

(18)

Contemporary ``Happy'' Residence Beliefs

297

(1)

New House Profiles

298

(1)

Why Small House Expansion and Adaptation Is Difficult

299

(1)

Why the Suburbs' Mid-Life Crisis May Get Worse

300

(1)

Institutions and Finance

300

(1)

A Case Study of Problems, Opportunities, and Policies

301

(2)

Relative Income and Family Poverty

303

(1)

Reversal of Neighborhood Trends and Age of Housing

303

(2)

Henrico's 60 Census Tracts

305

(3)

What Happened in Small House Neighborhoods?

308

(3)

Henrico's Public Policy Responses

311

(1)

Central City Versus Suburban Prospects

312

(2)

Can Local Policies Make a Difference?

314

(14)

Downtown Revival Despite Sprawl

315

(1)

Charlottesville's Downtown Revival and Beyond

315

(2)

Transit-Oriented Development

317

(1)

Arlington and Alexandria

318

(1)

Middle-Class Location Decisions and Small Houses

319

(2)

Chicago's Historic Bungalows

321

(1)

Single-Unit Dwellings

322

(1)

Condominiums Increase Ownership

323

(2)

Enhancing Decentralized Decisions

325

(1)

Investment Decisions

326

(2)

Prospects for Stability and Revival

328

(11)

Variation and Uncertainty

329

(1)

Regionalism

330

(1)

Beliefs Relevant to Location Decisions

331

(1)

Beliefs, Roles, and Policies

332

(2)

Markets and Decentralized Decisions

334

(2)

Where Next?

336

(3)

Index

339

Amazon no longer offers textbook rentals. We do!

Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs

Tomorrow's Cities, Tomorrow's Suburbs

9781932364149

1932364145

Summary

Author Biography

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

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