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Practitioners studying environmental change will be familiar with many classical statistical procedures for the detection and estimation of trends. However, the ever increasing capacity to collect and process vast amounts of environmental information has led to growing awareness that such procedures are limited in the insights that they can deliver. At the same time, significant developments in statistical methodology have often been widely dispersed in the statistical literature and have therefore received limited exposure in the environmental science community. This book aims to provide a thorough but accessible review of these developments. It is split into two parts: the first provides an introduction to this area and the second part presents a collection of case studies illustrating the practical application of modern statistical approaches to the analysis of trends in real studies.
The book is designed to be accessible to readers with some basic statistical training, but also contains sufficient detail to serve as a reference for practising statisticians. It will therefore be of use to postgraduate students and researchers both in the environmental sciences and in statistics.
Part I METHODOLOGY.
1.1 What is a trend?
1.2 Why analyse trends?
1.3 Some simple examples.
1.4 Considerations and Difficulties.
1.5 Scope of the book.
1.6 Further reading.
2 Exploratory analysis.
2.1 Data visualisation.
2.2 Simple smoothing.
2.3 Linear filters.
2.4 Classical test procedures.
2.5 Concluding comments.
3 Parametric modelling - deterministic trends.
3.1 The Linear trend.
3.2 Multiple regression ... MORE