Rational Choice in an Uncertain World : The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making
ISBN: 9781412959032 | 1412959039
Edition: 2ndFormat: Paperback
Publisher: SAGE Publications, Inc
Pub. Date: 11/17/2009
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' The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage.' - Robert Goldstone, Indiana University ' Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable ... MORE
| Thinking and Deciding | |
| Decision Making Is a Skill | |
| Thinking: automatic and Controlled | |
| The Computational Model of the Mind | |
| Through the Darkest Psychoanalytical Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition | |
| Quality of Choice: Rationality | |
| The Invention of Modern Decision Theory | |
| What Is Decision Making? | |
| Definition of a Decision | ... MORE |
| Picturing Decisions | |
| Decision Quality, Revisited | |
| Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example | |
| Over-Inclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs | |
| The Rationality of Considering Only the Future | |
| The Rest of This Book | |
| A General Framework for Judgment | |
| A Conceptual Framework for Judgment and Prediction | |
| Research With the Lens Model Framework | |
| Capturing Judgment in Statistical Models | |
| How Do Statistical Models Beat Human Judgment? | |
| Practical Implications of the Surprising Success of the Linear Model | |
| Objections and Rebuttals | |
| The Role of Judgment in Choices and Decisions | |
| The Fundamental Judgment Strategy: Anchoring and Adjustment | |
| Salient Values | |
| Anchoring and (Insufficient) Adjustment | |
| Anchoring on Ourselves | |
| Anchoring the Past in the Present | |
| Judging Heuristically | |
| Going Beyond the Information Given | |
| Estimating Frequencies and probabilities | |
| Availability of Memories | |
| Biased Samples in Memory | |
| Biased Sampling From Memory | |
| Availability to the Imagination | |
| From Availability to Probablility and Causality | |
| Judgment by Similarity: Same Old Things | |
| Representative Thinking | |
| The Ratio Rule | |
| Explanation-Based Judgments | |
| Everyone Likes a Good Story | |
| The Conjunction Probabliity Error (Again) | |
| Judging From Explanations | |
| Legal Scenarios: The Best Story Wins in the Courtroom | |
| Scenarios About Ourselves | |
| Scenarios About the Unthinkable | |
| Hindsight: Reconstructing the Past | |
| Sometimes It's Better to Forget | |
| Chance and Cause | |
| Misconceptions About Chance | |
| Illusions of Control | |
| Seeing Causal Structure Where It Isn't | |
| Regression Toward the Mean | |
| Reflections on Our Inability to Accept Randomness | |
| Thinking Rationally About Uncertainty | |
| What to Do About the Biases | |
| Getting Started Thinking in Terms of Probabilities | |
| Comprehending the Situation Being Judged | |
| Testing for Rationality | |
| How to Think About Inverse Probabilities | |
| Avoiding Subadditivity and Conjunction Errors | |
| The Other Side of the Coin: The Probability of a Disjunction of Events | |
| Changing Our Minds: Bayes's Theorem | |
| Statistical Decision Theory | |
| Concluding Comment on Rationality | |
| Evaluating Consequences: Fundamental Preferences | |
| What Good is Happiness? | |
| The Role of Emotions in Evaluations | |
| The Value of Money | |
| Decision Utility -- Predicting What We will Value | |
| Constructing Values | |
| From Preferences to Choices | |
| Deliberate Choices Among Complex Alternatives | |
| Ordering Alternatives | |
| Grouping Alternatives | |
| Choosing Alternatives | |
| How to Make Good Choices | |
| A Rational Decision Theory | |
| Formally Defining Rationality | |
| Making Theories Understandable -- The Axiomatic Method | |
| Defining Rationality: Expected Utility Theory | |
| Traditional Objections to the Axioms | |
| The Shoulds and Dos of the System | |
| Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis | |
| A Descriptive Decision Theory | |
| Non-expected Utility Theories | |
| Gain-Loss Framing Effects | |
| Loss Aversion | |
| Look to the Future | |
| What's Next? New Directions in Research on Judgment and Decision Making | |
| The Neuroscience of Decisions | |
| Emotions in Decision Making | |
| The Rise of Experimental Methods to Study Dynamic Decisions | |
| Do We Really Know Where We're Headed? | |
| In Praise of Uncertianty | |
| Uncertainty as Negative | |
| The Illusion of Hedonic Certainty | |
| The Price of Denying Uncertainty | |
| Two Cheers for Uncertainty | |
| Living With Uncertainty | |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
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