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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better

ISBN: 9780525952053 | 0525952055
Format: Hardcover
Publisher: Dutton Adult
Pub. Date: 3/17/2011

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SummaryTable of Contents
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ... MORE
Prefacep. ix
Introductionp. 1
The Unpredictable Worldp. 29
In the Minds of Expertsp. 58
The Experts Agree: Expect Much More of the Samep. 91
Unsettled by Uncertaintyp. 118
Everyone Loves a Hedgehogp. 143
When Prophets Failp. 193
The End Is Nighp. 234
Notesp. 267
Bibliography... MOREp. 287
Indexp. 295
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.


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