Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
ISBN: 9780525952053 | 0525952055
Format: HardcoverPublisher: Dutton Adult
Pub. Date: 3/17/2011
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An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ... MORE
| Preface | p. ix |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| The Unpredictable World | p. 29 |
| In the Minds of Experts | p. 58 |
| The Experts Agree: Expect Much More of the Same | p. 91 |
| Unsettled by Uncertainty | p. 118 |
| Everyone Loves a Hedgehog | p. 143 |
| When Prophets Fail | p. 193 |
| The End Is Nigh | p. 234 |
| Notes | p. 267 |
| Bibliography... MORE | p. 287 |
| Index | p. 295 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
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