Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 4th Edition
ISBN: 9780470714393 | 0470714395
Edition: 4thFormat: Paperback
Publisher: Wiley
Pub. Date: 1/1/2010
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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is a unique textbook in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods.
This textbook covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner ... MORE
The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment has received excellent reviews and has been widely cited in the academic literature. This textbook is recommended reading on courses throughout the world and is cited on US and UK government web sites.
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment has received excellent reviews and has been widely cited in the academic literature. It is recommended reading on courses throughout the world and is cited on US and UK government web sites.
| Foreword | p. ix |
| Preface | p. xi |
| Introduction | p. 1 |
| How people make decision involving multiple objectives | p. 13 |
| Decision involving multiple objectives: Smart | p. 31 |
| Decision involving multiple objectives: alternatives to Smart | p. 63 |
| Introduction to probability | p. 93 |
| Decision-making under uncertainty | p. 115 |
| Decision trees and influence dia... MORE | p. 157 |
| Applying simulation to decision problems | p. 183 |
| Revising judgments in the light of new information | p. 213 |
| Heuristics and biases in probability assessment | p. 237 |
| Method for eliciting probabilities | p. 267 |
| Risk and uncertainty management | p. 289 |
| Decision involving groups of individuals | p. 301 |
| Resource allocation and negotiation problems | p. 325 |
| Decision framing and cognitive inertia | p. 349 |
| Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty | p. 369 |
| Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions | p. 407 |
| Suggested answers to selected questions | p. 439 |
| Index | p. 445 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of journal of Behavioral Decision Making. Goerge Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.
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