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In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision-makers to gain insights into the problems they face. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is a unique textbook in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods.

This textbook covers both the psychological problems that are associated with unaided managerial decision making and the decision analysis methods designed to overcome them. It is presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner without using mathematical notation. This textbook draws together ideas from management science, statistics and psychology to present techniques and approaches to decision making.

The fourth edition has been fully revised and updated and includes a number of changes to reflect the latest developments in the field.

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment has received excellent reviews and has been widely cited in the academic literature. This textbook is recommended reading on courses throughout the world and is cited on US and UK government web sites.

Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the School of Management, University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of journal of Behavioral Decision Making. Goerge Wright is Professor of Management at the Business School, Durham University. He is the founding editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making and an Associate Editor of two forecasting journals: International Journal of Forecasting and the Journal of Forecasting. He is also an Associate Editor of Decision Support Systems and a member of the editorial board of Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.

Foreword	p. ix
Preface	p. xi
Introduction	p. 1
How people make decision involving multiple objectives	p. 13
Decision involving multiple objectives: Smart	p. 31
Decision involving multiple objectives: alternatives to Smart	p. 63
Introduction to probability	p. 93
Decision-making under uncertainty	p. 115
Decision trees and influence diagrams	p. 157
Applying simulation to decision problems	p. 183
Revising judgments in the light of new information	p. 213
Heuristics and biases in probability assessment	p. 237
Method for eliciting probabilities	p. 267
Risk and uncertainty management	p. 289
Decision involving groups of individuals	p. 301
Resource allocation and negotiation problems	p. 325
Decision framing and cognitive inertia	p. 349
Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty	p. 369
Alternative decision-support systems and conclusions	p. 407
Suggested answers to selected questions	p. 439
Index	p. 445
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 4th Edition

Decision Analysis for Management Judgment, 4th Edition

0470714395

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