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Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

by: Evans, James R.; Olson, David Louis

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

by: Evans, James R.; Olson, David Louis

ISBN 13:
9780130205452
ISBN 10:
0130205451
Edition: CD
Format: Paperback
Copyright: 11/01/1999
Publisher: Pearson College Div
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Summary

For a brief or modular course covering business statistics and introductory topics in management science. Designed specifically for today's shorter courses, often found in MBA programs. This text covers the basic concepts of business statistics, data analysis, and management science in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. The authors emphasize practical applications of the approaches to business decision making.

Preface

PART I

Data and Business Decisions

(18)

The Importance of Data Analysis and Decision Modeling

(1)

Types and Sources of Business Data

(7)

The Tracway database

(4)

Measurement and Statistics

(3)

Populations and samples

(1)

Decision Models

(1)

Using Microsoft Excel

(3)

Excel add-ins: PHStat, Crystal Ball, and TreePlan

(1)

Working with data

(2)

Summary

(1)

Questions and Problems

(1)

Displaying and Summarizing Data

(38)

Displaying Data with Charts and Graphs

(10)

Column and bar charts

(2)

Line charts

(3)

Pie charts

(1)

Area charts

(1)

Scatter Diagrams

(1)

Summary of graphical display methods

(1)

Descriptive Statistics

(13)

Frequency distributions and histograms

(2)

Measures of central tendency

(2)

Measures of dispersion

(2)

Coefficient of variation

(1)

Measures of shape

(1)

Excel's descriptive statistics tool

(3)

Data profiles and proportions

(2)

Visual Display of Statistical Measures

(5)

Box-and-whisker plots

(3)

Stem-and-leaf displays

(2)

Statistical Relationships

(3)

Case Study: Using Descriptive Statistics for the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award

(3)

Summary

(1)

Questions and Problems

(3)

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

(40)

Basic Concepts

(5)

Probability

(1)

Random variables

(1)

Probability distributions

(3)

Expected value and variance of a random variable

(1)

Discrete Probability Distributions

(3)

Bernoulli and binomial distributions

(2)

Poisson distribution

(1)

Continuous Probability Distributions

(12)

Uniform distribution

(1)

Normal distribution

(3)

Triangular distribution

(1)

Exponential distribution

(2)

Probability distributions in PHStat

(1)

Other useful distributions

(3)

Random Sampling from Probability Distributions

(8)

Random numbers

(1)

Sampling from probability distributions

(1)

Sampling from probability distributions in Excel

(3)

Sampling distributions and sampling error

(3)

Summary

(1)

Questions and Problems

(2)

Appendix: Introduction to Crystal Ball

(8)

Specifying input information

(4)

Crystal Ball output

(3)

Sampling and Statistical Analysis for Decision Making

(43)

Statistical Sampling

(5)

Sample design

(1)

Sampling methods

100

(2)

Error in sampling

102

(1)

Sampling from finite populations

103

(1)

Statistical Analysis of Sample Data

103

(1)

Estimation

103

(8)

Point estimates

103

(2)

Interval estimates

105

(1)

Confidence intervals for the mean

106

(4)

Confidence intervals for proportions

110

(1)

Confidence intervals and sample size

110

(1)

Hypothesis Testing

111

(14)

Hypothesis formulation

112

(1)

Significance level

113

(1)

Decision rules

114

(2)

Using p-values

116

(3)

Two-sample hypothesis tests for means

119

(1)

F-test for testing variances

119

(3)

Tests for proportions

122

(2)

Other hypothesis tests

124

(1)

Anova: Testing Differences of Several Means

125

(2)

Chi-Square Test for Independence

127

(2)

Summary

129

(2)

Questions and Problems

131

(2)

Appendix: Distribution Fitting

133

(7)

Distribution fitting with Crystal Ball

137

(3)

Statistical Quality Control

140

(27)

The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control

141

(1)

Statistical Process Control

142

(10)

Control Charts

143

(1)

x-and R-charts

144

(4)

Analyzing control charts

148

(4)

Control Charts for Attributes

152

(2)

Statistical Issues in the Design of Control Charts

154

(1)

Process Capability Analysis

155

(2)

Summary

157

(1)

Questions and Problems

158

(9)

PART II

Regression

167

(36)

Simple Linear Regression

170

(3)

Least Squares estimation

170

(3)

Measuring Variation about the Regression Line

173

(5)

Coefficient of determination and correlation coefficient

176

(1)

Standard error of the estimate and confidence bands

176

(2)

Regression as Analysis of Variance

178

(3)

Assumptions of Regression Analysis

181

(1)

Application of Regression Analysis to Investment Risk

182

(3)

Multiple Linear Regression

185

(3)

Interpreting results from multiple linear regression

187

(1)

Building Good Regression Models

188

(3)

Using Adjusted R+2 to evaluate fit

188

(1)

Correlation and multicollinearity

189

(1)

Best subsets regression

190

(1)

Regression with Ordinal and Nominal Independent Variables

191

(3)

Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms

194

(4)

Summary

198

(1)

Questions and Problems

199

(4)

Forecasting

203

(31)

Qualitative and Judgmental Methods

204

(5)

Historical analogy

205

(1)

The Delphi method

205

(1)

Applying the Delphi method

206

(2)

Indicators and indexes

208

(1)

Statistical Forecasting Models

209

(11)

Moving average models

210

(2)

Error metrics and forecast accuracy

212

(4)

Exponential smoothing models

216

(1)

Incorporating trend and seasonality into exponential smoothing models

217

(3)

Regression Models

220

(3)

Incorporating seasonality in regression models

222

(1)

The Practice of Forecasting

223

(3)

Summary

226

(1)

Questions and Problems

227

(2)

Appendix: CB Predictor

229

(5)

Selection Models and Risk Analysis

234

(42)

Decision Criteria and Selection

235

(14)

Decisions involving a single alternative

236

(1)

Sensitivity analysis

237

(2)

Decisions involving mutually exclusive alternatives

239

(2)

Decisions involving nonmutually exclusive alternatives

241

(1)

Decisions involving uncertainty

242

(7)

Monte Carlo Simulation for Risk Analysis

249

(4)

Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation

253

(6)

Project management

253

(4)

Budget-Constrained product selection

257

(2)

Case Study: Simulation and Risk Analysis in New Product Screening at Cinergy Corporation

259

(4)

Summary

263

(1)

Questions and Problems

263

(8)

Appendix: Additional Crystal Ball Options

271

(5)

Correlated assumptions

271

(1)

Freezing assumptions

271

(1)

Overlay charts

272

(1)

Trend charts

272

(1)

Sensitivity charts

272

(4)

Introduction to Optimization

276

(39)

Constrained Optimization

278

(1)

Types of Optimization Problems

279

(5)

Linear optimization example: transportation problem

280

(2)

Integer optimization example: project selection

282

(1)

Nonlinear optimization example: hotel pricing

283

(1)

Spreadsheet Optimization

284

(2)

Solving the optimal pricing problem

285

(1)

Solving Linear Optimization Models

286

(5)

Interpreting Solver reports

288

(2)

Difficulties with Solver

290

(1)

Solving Integer Optimization Models

291

(1)

Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models

292

(2)

Risk Analysis of Optimization Results

294

(2)

Combining Optimization and Simulation

296

(8)

A portfolio allocation model

296

(1)

Using OptQuest

297

(6)

Interpreting results

303

(1)

Adding a requirement

303

(1)

Summary

304

(1)

Questions and Problems

304

(11)

APPENDIX

315

(10)

Table A.1 The Standardized Normal Distribution

316

(1)

Table A.2 The Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution

317

(2)

Table A.3 Critical Values of t

319

(2)

Table A.4 Critical Values of F

321

(4)

Index

325

Amazon no longer offers textbook rentals. We do!

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

9780130205452

0130205451

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

Write a Review

Amazon no longer offers textbook rentals. We do!

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling

9780130205452

0130205451

Summary

Table of Contents

Supplemental Materials

Write a Review

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