FREE SHIPPING BOTH WAYS
ON EVERY ORDER!
LIST PRICE:
$27.95

OUR PRICE:
$20.75

You may extend rentals at any time.


The Signal and the Noise Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

ISBN: 9781594204111 | 159420411X
Edition: 1st
Format: Hardcover
Publisher: Penguin Press HC, The
Pub. Date: 9/27/2012

Why Rent from Knetbooks?

Because Knetbooks knows college students. Our rental program is designed to save you time and money. Whether you need a textbook for a semester, quarter or even a summer session, we have an option for you. Simply select a rental period, enter your information and your book will be on its way!

Top 5 reasons to order all your textbooks from Knetbooks:

  • We have the lowest prices on thousands of popular textbooks
  • Free shipping both ways on ALL orders
  • Most orders ship within 48 hours
  • Need your book longer than expected? Extending your rental is simple
  • Our customer support team is always here to help
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. The New York Timesnow publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation's most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.

Related Products


  • $100 Startup : Reinvent the Way You Make a Living, Do What You Love, and Create a New Future
    $100 Startup : Reinvent the Wa...
  • . 45-Caliber Desperado
    . 45-Caliber Desperado
  • .45-Caliber Cross Fire
    .45-Caliber Cross Fire
  • ”Ay Card-Ramba!
    ”Ay Card-Ramba!
  • 1 2 3 : A Child's First Counting Book
    1 2 3 : A Child's First Counti...
  • 1 2 3: A Child's First Counting Book
    1 2 3: A Child's First Countin...
  • 1 GRAVE TIME                MM
    1 GRAVE TIME MM
  • 100 Diagrams That Changed the World : From the Earliest Cave Paintings to the Innovation of the iPod
    100 Diagrams That Changed the ...
  • 100 Mistakes That Changed History : Backfires and Blunders That Collapsed Empires, Crashed Economies, and Altered the Course of Our World
    100 Mistakes That Changed Hist...
  • 100 Monsters in My School
    100 Monsters in My School


Please wait while this item is added to your cart...