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| Preface | p. xii |
| Permissions and Copyrights | p. xiv |
| List of Tables | p. xvi |
| List of Figures | p. xviii |
| Risk and Safety of Engineered Systems | p. 1 |
| Risk and Its Perception and Acceptance | p. 1 |
| Overview of Risk and Safety Analysis | p. 6 |
| Two Historical Reactor Accidents | p. 8 |
| Definition of Risk | p. 9 |
| Reliability, Availabili... MORE | p. 10 |
| Organization of the Book | p. 12 |
| References | p. 13 |
| Probabilities of Events | p. 15 |
| Events | p. 15 |
| Event Tree Analysis and Minimal Cut Sets | p. 17 |
| Probabilities | p. 19 |
| Interpretations of Probability | p. 19 |
| Axiomatic Approach to Probabilities | p. 20 |
| Intersection of Events | p. 21 |
| Union of Events | p. 22 |
| Decomposition Rule for Probabilities | p. 25 |
| Time-Independent Versus Time-Dependent Probabilities | p. 25 |
| Time-Independent Probabilities | p. 26 |
| Introduction | p. 26 |
| Time-Independent Probability Distributions | p. 27 |
| Normal Distribution | p. 32 |
| Reliability Functions | p. 35 |
| Time-Dependent Probability Distributions | p. 41 |
| Erlangian and Exponential Distributions | p. 42 |
| Gamma Distribution | p. 43 |
| Lognormal Distribution | p. 44 |
| Weibull Distribution | p. 46 |
| Generalized ôBathtubö Distribution | p. 47 |
| Selection of a Time-Dependent Probability Distribution | p. 48 |
| Extreme-Value Probability Distributions | p. 50 |
| Probability Models for Failure Analyses | p. 52 |
| References | p. 53 |
| Exercises | p. 53 |
| Reliability Data | p. 59 |
| Estimation Theory | p. 59 |
| Moment Estimators | p. 60 |
| Maximum Likelihood Estimators | p. 61 |
| Maximum Entropy Estimators | p. 64 |
| Comparison of Estimators | p. 65 |
| Bayesian Updating of Data | p. 65 |
| Bayes Equation | p. 65 |
| Applications of the Bayes Equation | p. 67 |
| Central Limit Theorem and Hypothesis Testing | p. 70 |
| Interpretation of the Central Limit Theorem | p. 71 |
| Hypothesis Testing with the Central Limit Theorem | p. 72 |
| Reliability Quantification | p. 74 |
| Central Limit Theorem for Reliability Quantification | p. 74 |
| Engineering Approach for Reliability Quantification | p. 76 |
| X2-Distribution for Reliability Quantification | p. 77 |
| Three-Way Comparison and Concluding Remarks | p. 78 |
| References | p. 80 |
| Excercises | p. 80 |
| Reliability of Multiple-Component Systems | p. 85 |
| Series and Active-Parallel Systems | p. 86 |
| Systems with Independent Components | p. 86 |
| Systems with Redundant Components | p. 88 |
| Fail-to-Safety and Fail-to-Danger Systems | p. 90 |
| Systems with Standby Components | p. 93 |
| Decomposition Analysis | p. 96 |
| Signal Flow Graph Analysis | p. 100 |
| Cut Set Analysis | p. 101 |
| References | p. 104 |
| Exercises | p. 104 |
| Availability and Reliability of Systems with Repair | p. 109 |
| Introduction | p. 109 |
| Markov Method | p. 111 |
| Markov Governing Equations | p. 111 |
| Solution of Markov Governing Equations | p. 113 |
| An Elementary Example | p. 116 |
| Availability Analyses | p. 118 |
| Rules for Constructing Transition Rate Matrices | p. 118 |
| Availability Transition Rate Matrices | p. 119 |
| Time-Dependent Availability Examples | p. 123 |
| Steady-State Availability | p. 127 |
| Reliability Analyses | p. 128 |
| Reliability Transition Rate Matrices | p. 129 |
| Time-Dependent Reliability Examples | p. 130 |
| Mean Time to Failure | p. 130 |
| Additional Capabilities of Markov Models | p. 133 |
| Imperfect Switching Between System States | p. 134 |
| Systems with Nonconstant Hazard Rates | p. 136 |
| References | p. 137 |
| Exercises | p. 137 |
| Probabilistic Risk Assessment | p. 141 |
| Failure Modes | p. 142 |
| Classification of Failure Events | p. 143 |
| Primary, Secondary, and Command Failures | p. 143 |
| Common Cause Failures | p. 144 |
| Human Errors | p. 148 |
| Failure Data | p. 150 |
| Hardware Failures | p. 150 |
| Human Errors | p. 150 |
| Combination of Failures and Consequences | p. 152 |
| Inductive Methods | p. 152 |
| Event Tree Analysis | p. 154 |
| Fault Tree Analysis | p. 156 |
| Introduction | p. 156 |
| Fault Tree Construction | p. 157 |
| Qualitative Fault Tree Analysis | p. 157 |
| Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis | p. 160 |
| Common Cause Failures and Fault Tree Analysis | p. 165 |
| Master Logic Diagram | p. 165 |
| Uncertainty and Importance Analysis | p. 168 |
| Types of Uncertainty in PRAs | p. 168 |
| Stochastic Uncertainty Analysis | p. 169 |
| Sensitivity and Importance Analysis | p. 170 |
| References | p. 172 |
| Exercises | p. 172 |
| Computer Programs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment | p. 179 |
| Fault Tree Methodology of the SAPHIRE Code | p. 179 |
| Gate Conversion and Tree Restructuring | p. 180 |
| Simplification of the Tree | p. 180 |
| Fault Tree Expansion and Reduction | p. 182 |
| Fault and Event Tree Evaluation with the SAPHERE Code | p. 183 |
| Other Features of the SAPHIRE Code | p. 185 |
| Other PRA Codes | p. 185 |
| Binary Decision Diagram Algorithm | p. 187 |
| Basic Formulation of the BDD Algorithm | p. 187 |
| Generalization of the BDD Formulation | p. 189 |
| Zero-Suppressed BDD Algorithm and the FTREX Code | p. 193 |
| References | p. 194 |
| Exercises | p. 195 |
| Nuclear Power Plant Safety Analysis | p. 197 |
| Engineered Safety Features of Nuclear Power Plants | p. 197 |
| Pressurized Water Reactor | p. 198 |
| Boiling Water Reactor | p. 210 |
| Accident Classification and General Design Goals | p. 215 |
| Plant Operating States | p. 217 |
| Accident Classification in 10 CFR 50 | p. 217 |
| General Design Criteria and Safety Goals | p. 219 |
| Design Basis Accident: Large-Break LOCA | p. 220 |
| Typical Sequence of a Cold-Leg LBLOCA in PWR | p. 221 |
| ECCS Specifications | p. 225 |
| Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation | p. 227 |
| Severe (Class 9) Accidents | p. 231 |
| Anticipated Transients Without Scram | p. 233 |
| History and Background of the ATWS Issue | p. 233 |
| Resolution of the ATWS Issues | p. 235 |
| Power Coefficients of Reactivity in LWRs | p. 237 |
| Radiological Source and Atmospheric Dispersion | p. 241 |
| Radiological Source Term | p. 242 |
| Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Plume | p. 243 |
| Simple Models for Dose Rate Calculation | p. 247 |
| Biological Effects of Radiation Exposure | p. 250 |
| References | p. 252 |
| Exercises | p. 254 |
| Major Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Incidents | p. 259 |
| Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident | p. 260 |
| Sequence of the Accident-March 1979 | p. 260 |
| Implications and Follow-Up of the Accident | p. 260 |
| PWR In-Vessel Accident Progression | p. 263 |
| Core Uncovery and Heatup | p. 265 |
| Cladding Oxidation | p. 266 |
| Clad Melting and Fuel Liquefaction | p. 268 |
| Molten Core Slumping and Relocation | p. 270 |
| Vessel Breach | p. 271 |
| Chernobyl Accident | p. 272 |
| Cause and Nature of the Accident-April 1986 | p. 272 |
| Sequence of the Accident | p. 274 |
| Estimate of Energy Release in the Accident | p. 275 |
| Accident Consequences | p. 275 |
| Comparison of the TMI and Chernobyl Accidents | p. 276 |
| Fukushima Station Accident | p. 277 |
| Sequence of the Accident-March 2011 | p. 277 |
| March 2011 Perspectives on the Fukushima SBO Event | p. 278 |
| Salem Anticipated Transient Without Scram | p. 279 |
| Chronology and Cause of the Salem Incident | p. 279 |
| Implications and Follow-Up of the Salem ATWS Event | p. 281 |
| LaSalle Transient Event | p. 283 |
| LaSalle Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations | p. 283 |
| Simple Model for Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations | p. 287 |
| Implications and Follow-Up of the LaSalle Incident | p. 289 |
| Davis-Besse Potential LOCA Event | p. 291 |
| Background and Chronology of the Incident | p. 291 |
| NRC Decision to Grant DB Shutdown Delay | p. 293 |
| Causes for the Davis-Besse Incident and Follow-Up | p. 295 |
| References | p. 297 |
| Exercises | p. 300 |
| PRA Studies of Nuclear Power Plants | p. 303 |
| WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study | p. 304 |
| Assessment of Severe Accident Risks: NUREG-1150 | p. 311 |
| Background and Scope of the NUREG-1150 Study | p. 311 |
| Overview of NUREG-1150 Methodology | p. 313 |
| Accident Frequency Analysis | p. 315 |
| Accident Progression Analysis | p. 320 |
| Radionuclide Transport Analysis | p. 324 |
| Offsite Consequence Analysis | p. 327 |
| Uncertainty Analysis | p. 330 |
| Risk Integration | p. 331 |
| Additional Perspectives and Comments on NUREG-1150 | p. 337 |
| Simplified PRA in the Structure of NUREG-1150 | p. 340 |
| Description of the Simplified PRA Model | p. 340 |
| Parametric Studies and Comments on the Simplified PRA Model | p. 344 |
| References | p. 345 |
| Exercises | p. 347 |
| Passive Safety and Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems | p. 349 |
| Passive Safety Demonstration Tests at EBR-II | p. 349 |
| EBR-II Primary System and Simplified Model | p. 350 |
| Unprotected Loss-of-Flow and Loss-of-Heat-Sink Tests | p. 357 |
| Simplified Fuel Channel Analysis | p. 361 |
| Implications of EBR-II Passive Safety Demonstration Tests | p. 362 |
| Safety Characteristics of Generation III+ Plants | p. 364 |
| AP1000 Design Features | p. 364 |
| Small-Break LOCA Analysis for AP1000 | p. 366 |
| Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor | p. 371 |
| Reliability Quantification of SBWR Passive Safety Containment | p. 375 |
| Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants | p. 382 |
| Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor | p. 383 |
| Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents for Fast Reactors | p. 387 |
| VHTR and Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table | p. 393 |
| References | p. 396 |
| Exercises | p. 399 |
| Risk-Infoimed Regulations and Reliability-Centered Maintenance | p. 401 |
| Risk Measures for Nuclear Plant Regulations | p. 402 |
| Principles of Risk-Informed Regulations and Licensing | p. 402 |
| Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making | p. 405 |
| Other Initiatives in Risk-Informed Regulations | p. 406 |
| Reliability-Centered Maintenance | p. 406 |
| Optimization Strategy for Preventive Maintenance | p. 407 |
| Reliability-Centered Maintenance Framework | p. 409 |
| Cost-Benefit Considerations | p. 410 |
| References | p. 413 |
| Exercises | p. 415 |
| Dynamic Event Tree Analysis | p. 417 |
| Basic Features of Dynamic Event Tree Analysis | p. 418 |
| Continuous Event Tree Formulation | p. 421 |
| Derivation of the Stochastic Balance Equation | p. 421 |
| Integral Form of the Stochastic Balance Equation | p. 423 |
| Numerical Solution of the Stochastic Balance Equation | p. 425 |
| Cell-to-Cell Mapping for Parameter Estimation | p. 426 |
| Derivation of the Bayesian Recursive Relationship | p. 427 |
| CCM Technique for Dynamic Event Tree Construction | p. 430 |
| Diagnosis of Component Degradations | p. 434 |
| Bayesian Framework for Component Diagnostics | p. 434 |
| Implementation of the Probabilistic Diagnostic Algorithm | p. 437 |
| References | p. 441 |
| Exercises | p. 442 |
| Reactor Radiological Sources | p. 443 |
| Fission Product Inventory and Decay Heat | p. 443 |
| Health Effects of Radiation Exposure | p. 446 |
| References | p. 448 |
| Some Special Mathematical Functions | p. 449 |
| Gamma Function | p. 449 |
| Error Function | p. 451 |
| References | p. 451 |
| Some Failure Rate Data | p. 453 |
| Linear Kalman Filter Algorithm | p. 457 |
| References | p. 461 |
| Answers to Selected Exercises | p. 462 |
| Index | p. 467 |
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