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Predictive Analytics : The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die

ISBN: 9781118356852 | 1118356853

Edition: 1st
Format: Hardcover
Publisher: Wiley
Pub. Date: 2/19/2013

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Summary Table of Contents Author Biography

Predictive analytics uses statistical techniques to analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future events. In business, analytics use patterns found in data to identify risks and opportunities and the results are then used to help businesses make informed and beneficial decisions. Predictive analytics is used in a variety of business fields, including, finance, insurance, telecommunications, retail, and healthcare. The Prediction Effect is a functional, practical book that helps readers gain maximal value from predictive ... MOREanalytics as well as learn what is fascinating about the core technology and how it works. The book will deliver a palatable serving of substance regarding the core technology to give executives and managers a concrete sense of how predictive analytics functions. The book will demonstrate how to use predictive analytics to assess a borrower's potential and ability to pay before granting a loan predict how expensive an insurance enrollee is likely to be by predicting the chances of illness, default, and bankruptcy predict store level demand for inventory management purposes reduce a business's exposure to fraud identify the most effective combination of products and marketing material that should be used to target consumers determine the likelihood of a customer wanting to terminate service analyze customers' spending and usage to help sell the right product at the right time determine which patients are at risk of developing certain conditions, like diabetes, asthma, and heart disease predict customers' buying habits in order to promote relevant products

You have been predicted � by companies, governments, law-enforcement, hospitals and universities. Their computers say, "I knew you were going to do that!" These institutions are seizing upon the power to predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.

Why? For good reason: Predicting human behavior combats financial risk, fortifies healthcare, reduces spam, toughens crime-fighting and boosts sales.

How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, booming unnatural resource:� data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.

Predictive analytics is the science that unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but even lousy predictions can be extremely valuable.

In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World co-founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:

What unique form of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession.
Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves.
Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights.
Five reasons organizations predict death, including one health insurance company.
The way U.S. Bank and European wireless carrier Telenor calculate how to most strongly influence each customer.
How companies ascertain untold, private truths � how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job.
How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide who stays in prison and who goes free.
What's predicted by the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, IBM, the IRS, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, Pandora, PayPal, Pfizer, and Wikipedia.

A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining who to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.

Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward � but that can be predicted in advance?

Foreword Thomas H. Davenport xiii

Preface xv

What is the occupational hazard of predictive analytics?

Introduction: The Prediction Effect 1

Chapter 1: Liftoff! Prediction Takes Action (deployment) 17

Chapter 2: With Power Comes Responsibility: Hewlett-Packard, Target, and the Police Deduce Your Secrets (ethics) 37

Chapter 3: The Data Effect: A Glut at the End of the Rainbow (data) 67

Chapter 4: The Machine That Learns: A Look Inside Chase’s Prediction of Mortgage Risk (modeling) 103

Chapt... MORE

Chapter 6: Watson and the Jeopardy! Challenge (question answering) 151

Chapter 7: Persuasion by the Numbers: How Telenor, U.S. Bank, and the Obama Campaign Engineered Influence (uplift) 187

Afterword 218

Ten Predictions for the First Hour of 2020

Appendices

A. Five Effects of Prediction 221

B. Twenty-One Applications of Predictive Analytics 222

C. Prediction People—Cast of "Characters" 225

Notes 228

Acknowledgments 290

About the Author 292

Index 293

ERIC SIEGEL, PhD, founder of Predictive Analytics World and Executive Editor of the Predictive Analytics Times, makes the how and why of predictive analytics understandable and captivating. Eric is a former Columbia University professor?who used to sing educational songs to his students?and a renowned speaker, educator, and leader in the field.

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