Preface ix

Acknowledgment xiii

1 A Single]Equation Econometric Model 1

1.1 The essence of an econometric model 1

1.2 Specification of an econometric model 4

1.3 Estimation of an econometric model’s parameters 5

1.4 Verification of the model 10

1.5 Multiplicative econometric models 14

1.6 The limited endogenous variables 16

1.7 Econometric forecasting 20

1.7.1 The concept of econometric forecasting 20

1.7.2 The conditions of econometric forecast estimation 22

1.7.3 Forecasts based on single]equation models 23

1.7.4 Analysis of econometric forecasts’ precision 25

2 Multiple]Equation Econometric Models 29

2.1 Classification of multiple]equation models 29

2.2 A reduced form of the model 33

2.3 Identification of the model 34

2.4 Estimation of the parameters of a multiple]equation econometric model 36

2.5 Forecasts estimation based on multiple]equation models 39

3 Econometric Modeling of a Large] and Medium]Sized Enterprise’s Economic System 47

3.1 Specification of a large] and medium]sized enterprise’s econometric model 47

3.2 Structural form of an econometric model of a large] and medium]sized enterprise 50

3.3 Empirical econometric model of a medium]sized enterprise 52

3.3.1 Assumptions for an econometric empirical model 52

3.3.2 Equation of the sales income 54

3.3.3 Equation of employment 54

3.3.4 Equation of labor productivity 57

3.3.5 Equation of the average wage 57

3.3.6 Equation of the fixed assets 60

3.3.7 Equation of the technical labor equipment 60

3.4 Application of the company’s model during a decision]making process 62

4 An Empirical Econometric Model of a Small]Sized Enterprise 69

4.1 Specification of a small]sized enterprise’s econometric model 69

4.2 The structural form of a small]sized enterprise’s econometric model 71

4.2.1 The model’s total interdependent variables 71

4.2.2 The model’s predetermined variables 73

4.2.3 Structural]form’s equations of a small]sized enterprise’s econometric model 75

4.3 Equation of the cash inflows 76

4.4 Equation of the sales income 80

4.5 Equations of ready]made production 83

4.6 Equation of labor efficiency 87

4.7 Equations of the average wage 89

4.8 Equations of the net payroll 92

4.9 The employment equation 94

4.10 Equations of the fixed assets 96

4.11 Equations of wage effectiveness 103

4.12 Equations of the efficiency of implementing the fixed assets 111

4.13 Practical applicability of a small]sized enterprise’s model 115

5 Econometric Modeling in Management of Small]Sized Enterprise 119

5.1 The concept of financial liquidity and its measurement in a small]sized enterprise 119

5.2 Econometric modeling of monthly financial liquidity 123

5.3 Econometric modeling of quarterly financial liquidity 129

5.4 Econometric modeling of debt recovery efficacy 132

5.4.1 Measuring the effectiveness of debt recovery in an enterprise 132

5.4.2 Statistical analysis of debt recovery efficacy in enterprise 134

5.5 Econometric model describing interdependencies between the financial liquidity and the debt recovery efficacy in an enterprise 139

5.6 Econometric forecasting of financial liquidity 144

6 Econometric Model in the Analysis of an Enterprise’s Labor Resources 151

6.1 A study of a mechanism of the demand for labor 151

6.2 Econometric modeling of labor intensity of production 167

6.3 Econometric model in selection of an efficient worker 175

6.4 Econometric model in the selection of an efficient white]collar worker 184

Conclusion 191

Bibliography 193

Index 197

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