An overview of the methods used for risk analysis in a variety of industrial sectors, with a particular focus on the consideration of human aspects, this book provides a definition of all the fundamental notions associated with risks and risk management, as well as clearly placing the discipline of risk analysis within the broader context of risk management processes.
The author begins by presenting a certain number of basic concepts, followed by the general principle of risk analysis. He then moves on to examine the ISO31000 standard, which provides a specification for the implementation of a risk management approach. The ability to represent the information we use is crucial, so the representation of knowledge, covering both information concerning the risk occurrence mechanism and details of the system under scrutiny, is also considered. The different analysis methods are then presented, firstly for the identification of risks, then for their analysis in terms of cause and effect, and finally for the implementation of safety measures.
Concrete examples are given throughout the book and the methodology and method can be applied to various fields (industry, health, organization, technical systems).

Contents

Part 1. General Concepts and Principles
1. Introduction.
2. Basic Notions.
3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods.
4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000).
Part 2. Knowledge Representation
5. Modeling Risk.
6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk.
7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis.
Part 3. Risk Analysis Method
8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis.
9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis.
10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method.
11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method.
12. Fault Tree Analysis.
13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis.
14. Human Reliability Analysis.
15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis.
Part 4. Appendices
Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists.
Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis.
Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability.
Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory.
Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability.
Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling.
Appendix 7. CaseStudy: Chemical Process.
Appendix 8. XRisk Software.

About the Authors

Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.

Jean-Marie Flaus is Professor at Joseph Fourier University in Grenoble, France.

Foreword xiii

PART 1. GENERAL CONCEPTS AND PRINCIPLES  1

Chapter 1. Introduction 3

1.1. What is risk management? 3

1.2. Nature of risks 4

1.3. Evolution of risk management 6

1.4. Aims of this book 12

Chapter 2. Basic Notions 13

2.1. Formalization of the notion of risk 13

2.2. Hazard and sources of hazard 16

2.3. Stakes and targets 17

2.4. Vulnerability and resilience 18

2.5. Undesirable events and scenarios 18

2.6. Accidents and incidents 20

2.7. Safety 20

2.8. Likelihood, probability and frequency 21

2.9. Severity and intensity 22

2.10. Criticality 23

2.11. Reducing risk: prevention, protection and barriers 23

2.12. Risk analysis and risk management 25

2.13. Inductive and deductive approaches 26

2.14. Known risks and emerging risks 27

2.15. Individual and societal risks 27

2.16. Acceptable risk 28

2.17. The ALARP and ALARA principles 29

2.18. Risk maps 31

Chapter 3. Principles of Risk Analysis Methods 33

3.1. Introduction 33

3.2. Categories of targets and damages 35

3.3. Classification of sources and undesirable events 36

3.4. Causes of technical origin 40

3.5. Causes linked to the natural or manmade environment 46

3.6. Human and organizational factors 46

Chapter 4. The Risk Management Process (ISO31000) 53

4.1. Presentation 53

4.2. ISO31000 standard 55

4.3. Implementation: the risk management process 61

PART 2. KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION 71

Chapter 5. Modeling Risk 73

5.1. Introduction 73

5.2. Degradation flow models 74

5.3. Causal modeling 77

5.4. Modeling dynamic aspects 87

5.5. Summary 90

Chapter 6. Measuring the Importance of a Risk 93

6.1. Introduction 93

6.2. Assessing likelihood 96

6.3. Assessment of severity 102

6.4. Risk assessment 109

6.5. Application to the case of occupational risks 113

6.6. Application to the case of industrial risks 118

Chapter 7. Modeling of Systems for Risk Analysis  123

7.1. Introduction 123

7.2. Systemic or process modeling 126

7.3. Functional modeling 128

7.4. Structural modeling 131

7.5. Structuro-functional modeling 134

7.6. Modeling the behavior of a system 137

7.7. Modeling human tasks 140

7.8. Choosing an approach 145

7.9. Relationship between the system model and the risk model 146

PART 3. RISK ANALYSIS METHODS 151

Chapter 8. Preliminary Hazard Analysis 153

8.1. Introduction 153

8.2. Implementation of the method 155

8.3. Model-driven PHA 165

8.4. Variations of PHA 166

8.5. Examples of application 169

8.6. Summary 175

Chapter 9. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 179

9.1. Introduction 179

9.2. Key concepts 181

9.3. Implementation of the method 187

9.4. Model-based analysis 195

9.5. Limitations of the FMEA 197

9.6. Examples 198

Chapter 10. Deviation Analysis Using the HAZOP Method  201

10.1. Introduction 201

10.2. Implementation of the HAZOP method 201

10.3. Limits and connections with other methods 208

10.4. Model-based analysis 209

10.5. Application example 210

Chapter 11. The Systemic and Organized Risk Analysis Method  211

11.1. Introduction 211

11.2. Implementation of part A 214

11.3. Implementing part B. 224

11.4. Conclusion 228

Chapter 12. Fault Tree Analysis 229

12.1. Introduction 229

12.2. Method description 230

12.3. Useful notions 231

12.4. Implementation of the method 234

12.5. Qualitative and quantitative analysis 237

12.6. Connection with the reliability diagram 242

12.7. Model-based approach 243

12.8. Examples 244

12.9. Common cause failure analysis 247

Chapter 13. Event Tree and Bow-Tie Diagram Analysis 253

13.1. Event tree 253

13.2. Bow-tie diagram 259

Chapter 14. Human Reliability Analysis 263

14.1. Introduction 263

14.2. The stages of a probabilistic analysis of human reliability 267

14.3. Human error classification 269

14.4. Analysis and quantification of human errors 274

14.5. The SHERPA method 278

14.6. The HEART method 280

14.7. The THERP method 282

14.8. The CREAM method 288

14.9. Assessing these methods 291

Chapter 15. Barrier Analysis and Layer of Protection Analysis 293

15.1. Choice of barriers 293

15.2. Barrier classification 295

15.3. Barrier analysis based on energy flows 297

15.4. Barrier assessment 299

15.5. Safety instrumented systems 301

15.6. The LOPA method 307

PART 4. APPENDICES 319

Appendix 1. Occupational Hazard Checklists 321

Appendix 2. Causal Tree Analysis 327

Appendix 3. A Few Reminders on the Theory of Probability 329

Appendix 4. Useful Notions in Reliability Theory 335

Appendix 5. Data Sources for Reliability 341

Appendix 6. A Few Approaches for System Modelling 347

Appendix 7. Case Study: Chemical Process 355

Appendix 8. XRisk Software 361

Bibliography 363

Index 369