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Good Thinking : The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications
ISBN: 9780486474380 | 0486474380
Edition: ReprintFormat: Trade Paper
Publisher: Dover Publications
Pub. Date: 11/18/2009
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Those sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintained that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subje... MORE
| Acknowledgments | p. vii |
| Introduction | p. ix |
| Bayesian Rationality | |
| Rational Decisions (#26) | p. 3 |
| Twenty-seven Principles of Rationality (#679) | p. 15 |
| 46656 Varieties of Bayesians (#765) | p. 20 |
| The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet (#838) | p. 22 |
| Probability | |
| Which Comes First, Probability or Statistics (#85A)... MORE | p. 59 |
| Kinds of Probability (#182) | p. 63 |
| Subjective Probability as the Measure of a Non-measurable Set (#230) | p. 73 |
| Random Thoughts about Randomness (#815) | p. 83 |
| Some History of the Hierarchical Bayesian Methodology (#1230) | p. 95 |
| Dynamic Probability, Computer Chess, and the Measurement of Knowledge (#938) | p. 106 |
| Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, Induction, and Simplicity | |
| The White Shoe Is a Red Herring (#518) | p. 119 |
| The White Shoe qua Herring Is Pink (#600) | p. 121 |
| A Subjective Evaluation of Bode's Law and an ôObjectiveö Test for Approximate Numerical Rationality (#603B) | p. 122 |
| Some Logic and History of Hypothesis Testing (#1234) | p. 129 |
| Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypotheses (#846) | p. 149 |
| Information and Surprise | |
| The Appropriate Mathematical Tools for Describing and Measuring Uncertainty (#43) | p. 173 |
| On the Principle of Total Evidence (#508) | p. 178 |
| A Little Learning Can Be Dangerous (#855) | p. 181 |
| The Probabilistic Explication of Information, Evidence, Surprise, Causality, Explanation, and Utility (#659) | p. 184 |
| Is the Size of Our Galaxy Surprising? (#814) | p. 193 |
| Causality and Explanation | |
| A Causal Calculus (#223B) | p. 197 |
| A Simplification in the ôCausal Calculusö (#1336) | p. 218 |
| Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanation with Statistical Applications (#1000) | p. 219 |
| References | p. 239 |
| Bibliography | p. 251 |
| Subject Index of the Bibliography | p. 269 |
| Name Index | p. 313 |
| Subject Index | p. 317 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
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