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| Preface | p. xi |
| Questions and Answers | |
| Paths of Political Development | p. 1 |
| Britain | p. 2 |
| Argentina | p. 5 |
| Singapore | p. 8 |
| South Africa | p. 10 |
| The Agenda | p. 14 |
| Our Argument | p. 15 |
| Democracy versus Nondemocracy | p. 16 |
| Building Blocks of Our Approach | p. 19 |
| Toward Our Basi... MORE | p. 22 |
| Our Theory of Democratization | p. 23 |
| Democratic Consolidation | p. 30 |
| Determinants of Democracy | p. 31 |
| Political Identities and the Nature of Conflict | p. 42 |
| Democracy in a Picture | p. 43 |
| Overview of the Book | p. 46 |
| What Do We Know about Democracy? | p. 48 |
| Measuring Democracy | p. 48 |
| Patterns of Democracy | p. 51 |
| Democracy, Inequality, and Redistribution | p. 58 |
| Crises and Democracy | p. 65 |
| Social Unrest and Democratization | p. 65 |
| The Literature | p. 75 |
| Our Contribution | p. 80 |
| Modeling Politics | |
| Democratic Politics | p. 89 |
| Introduction | p. 89 |
| Aggregating Individual Preferences | p. 91 |
| Single-Peaked Preferences and the Median Voter Theorem | p. 92 |
| Our Workhorse Models | p. 99 |
| Democracy and Political Equality | p. 113 |
| Conclusion | p. 117 |
| Nondemocratic Politics | p. 118 |
| Introduction | p. 118 |
| Power and Constraints in Nondemocratic Politics | p. 120 |
| Modeling Preferences and Constraints in Nondemocracies | p. 128 |
| Commitment Problems | p. 133 |
| A Simple Game of Promises | p. 144 |
| A Dynamic Model | p. 151 |
| Incentive-Compatible Promises | p. 161 |
| Conclusion | p. 171 |
| The Creation and Consolidation of Democracy | |
| Democratization | p. 173 |
| Introduction | p. 173 |
| The Role of Political Institutions | p. 173 |
| Preferences over Political Institutions | p. 176 |
| Political Power and Institutions | p. 177 |
| A Static Model of Democratization | p. 181 |
| Democratization or Repression? | p. 186 |
| A Dynamic Model of Democratization | p. 193 |
| Subgame Perfect Equilibria | p. 201 |
| Alternative Political Identities | p. 203 |
| Targeted Transfers | p. 207 |
| Power of the Elites in Democracy | p. 207 |
| Ideological Preferences over Regimes | p. 211 |
| Democratization in a Picture | p. 214 |
| Equilibrium Revolutions | p. 215 |
| Conclusion | p. 218 |
| Coups and Consolidation | p. 221 |
| Introduction | p. 221 |
| Incentives for Coups | p. 224 |
| A Static Model of Coups | p. 225 |
| A Dynamic Model of the Creation and Consolidation of Democracy | p. 231 |
| Alternative Political Identities | p. 246 |
| Targeted Transfers | p. 246 |
| Power in Democracy and Coups | p. 247 |
| Consolidation in a Picture | p. 249 |
| Defensive Coups | p. 251 |
| Conclusion | p. 253 |
| Putting the Models to Work | |
| The Role of the Middle Class | p. 255 |
| Introduction | p. 255 |
| The Three-Class Model | p. 259 |
| Emergence of Partial Democracy | p. 262 |
| From Partial to Full Democracy | p. 267 |
| Repression: The Middle Class as a Buffer | p. 273 |
| Repression: Softliners versus Hardliners | p. 278 |
| The Role of the Middle Class in Consolidating Democracy | p. 283 |
| Conclusion | p. 285 |
| Economic Structure and Democracy | p. 287 |
| Introduction | p. 287 |
| Economic Structure and Income Distribution | p. 290 |
| Political Conflict | p. 292 |
| Capital, Land, and the Transition to Democracy | p. 293 |
| Costs of Coup on Capital and Land | p. 296 |
| Capital, Land, and the Burden of Democracy | p. 300 |
| Conflict between Landowners and Industrialists | p. 307 |
| Industrialists, Landowners, and Democracy in Practice | p. 312 |
| Economic Institutions | p. 313 |
| Human Capital | p. 316 |
| Conjectures about Political Development | p. 317 |
| Conclusion | p. 319 |
| Globalization and Democracy | p. 321 |
| Introduction | p. 321 |
| A Model of an Open Economy | p. 325 |
| Political Conflict - Democratic Consolidation | p. 331 |
| Political Conflict - Transition to Democracy | p. 334 |
| Financial Integration | p. 338 |
| Increased Political Integration | p. 343 |
| Alternative Assumptions about the Nature of International Trade | p. 344 |
| Conclusion | p. 347 |
| Conclusions and the Future of Democracy | |
| Conclusions and the Future of Democracy | p. 349 |
| Paths of Political Development Revisited | p. 349 |
| Extensions and Areas for Future Research | p. 355 |
| The Future of Democracy | p. 358 |
| Appendix | |
| Appendix to Chapter 4: The Distribution of Power in Democracy | p. 361 |
| Introduction | p. 361 |
| Probabilistic Voting Models | p. 361 |
| Lobbying | p. 367 |
| Partisan Politics and Political Capture | p. 373 |
| Bibliography | p. 381 |
| Index | p. 401 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |