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| Acknowledgments | p. xi |
| Introduction | p. xiii |
| Investing is a Science | p. 1 |
| Apollo's Arrow Shot Crooked | p. 2 |
| Dionysus-More than Just a Good Vintner | p. 3 |
| Use the Method, Not the Dogma | p. 5 |
| Careful with Categories | p. 13 |
| Could Math be Wrong? | p. 15 |
| Reduction: Why you Can't Quantify Everything | p. 19 |
| Investing is a Disc... MORE | p. 27 |
| Discipline, Discipline, Discipline | p. 29 |
| Sagacity: Seeing isn't Believing | p. 41 |
| Understanding and Being Curious | p. 48 |
| Human Behavior | p. 51 |
| Brain Basics | p. 53 |
| Brains on the Market | p. 64 |
| My, What a Terrible Memory you Have! | p. 71 |
| Bad Behavioral Finance | p. 76 |
| Behavioral Miscellany | p. 79 |
| Sentiment and the Media | p. 83 |
| Sentiment Basics | p. 85 |
| News and the Media | p. 90 |
| What's their Motive? | p. 98 |
| Tips and Tricks to Navigate the Media | p. 100 |
| Metaphors we Invest by | p. 106 |
| How Stock Markets Really Work | p. 113 |
| Capitalism by Any Other Name | p. 114 |
| It's Complicated ... A Crash Course in CEAS | p. 118 |
| The New Golden Rule | p. 130 |
| Oldest and Still the Best: Supply and Demand | p. 139 |
| Forecasting, Part1-The Principle of Probability | p. 147 |
| Forecasting is Strange Alchemy | p. 148 |
| Types of Predictions | p. 150 |
| Probability Theory, or How Markets are Nothing Like Coin Tosses | p. 154 |
| The Biggest Problem of them All | p. 163 |
| Investing Lessons from Probability | p. 165 |
| Looking Ahead ... | p. 170 |
| Forecasting, Part2-Recognizing Patterns | p. 173 |
| A Pattern by any Other Name | p. 174 |
| Stock Market Patterns | p. 175 |
| Patterns Through the Noise | p. 179 |
| It's a Game of Relative Expectations | p. 181 |
| Back to the Future: Using History to Find Patterns | p. 187 |
| Three Big Drivers | p. 191 |
| An Optimistic Note on Future Patterns | p. 195 |
| Practical Portfolio Management | p. 197 |
| The Virtues of Heuristics | p. 198 |
| Goal Setting | p. 199 |
| Personal Goals | p. 201 |
| Portfolio Goals | p. 205 |
| The Top-Down Philosophy | p. 210 |
| Miscellaneous Heuristics | p. 223 |
| The Nature of Risk and Navigating Markets in Troubled Times | p. 229 |
| Risk and Uncertainty | p. 231 |
| Financial Risk, or What Happens When you Assume | p. 233 |
| In Troubled Times | p. 239 |
| Parting Thoughts | p. 253 |
| Notes | p. 255 |
| Selected Bibliography and Further Reading | p. 259 |
| About the Author | p. 269 |
| Index | p. 271 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
Michael J. Hanson has been an investment banker as well as a stock analyst and is currently a senior editor and recurring columnist at Fisher Investments' MarketMinder.com. He has lectured on topics in money management at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and speaks regularly throughout the country on a variety of topics, including capital markets and behavioral finance.